There's a $35,000 prize pool ($30k for accuracy, $5k for high-quality comments). And then a team of paid Metaculus Pro Forecasters (pulled from top 0.2% of Metaculus community) share their predictions and rationales. We also have contributions from various domain experts from outside the Metaculus forecasting community.
And then to self-promote a bit (with apologies):
The tournament is open and I encourage folks to check it out and add predictions to the aggregates visualized in the Hub (https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/)!
The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub provides aggregate forecasts on occupation-level employment, wages, trade school certs, early-career indicators, etc. etc. along with broader macro indicators and comparisons to past research. It's a resource for policymakers, workforce agencies, educators, employers, students, journalists, researchers, and anyone trying to make better decisions about how AI may reshape work.
Genuinely useful piece. One small thing from the trader side: a market only works as a signal when the people trading it are coming at it from different angles. A handful of big sponsors with similar views can produce a deep, confident, narrow price — the spread is tight and the volume is real, but it's not really aggregating anything new. Just three rooms agreeing out loud.
Hi there, I work at Metaculus, very much appreciate the post overall, but wanted to clarify:
The Labor Automation Tournament (https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/) does have financial incentives to be correct:
There's a $35,000 prize pool ($30k for accuracy, $5k for high-quality comments). And then a team of paid Metaculus Pro Forecasters (pulled from top 0.2% of Metaculus community) share their predictions and rationales. We also have contributions from various domain experts from outside the Metaculus forecasting community.
And then to self-promote a bit (with apologies):
The tournament is open and I encourage folks to check it out and add predictions to the aggregates visualized in the Hub (https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/)!
The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub provides aggregate forecasts on occupation-level employment, wages, trade school certs, early-career indicators, etc. etc. along with broader macro indicators and comparisons to past research. It's a resource for policymakers, workforce agencies, educators, employers, students, journalists, researchers, and anyone trying to make better decisions about how AI may reshape work.
It's a great initiative! But $35k is tiny. For example, the Polymarket contract for a Dota 2 pro match today has $1M in volume.
Genuinely useful piece. One small thing from the trader side: a market only works as a signal when the people trading it are coming at it from different angles. A handful of big sponsors with similar views can produce a deep, confident, narrow price — the spread is tight and the volume is real, but it's not really aggregating anything new. Just three rooms agreeing out loud.
Good problem to be solving though.