Might the wage premium for AI roles be a better metric of the future ROI from AI than interest rates? In particular, these firms have less uncertainty on the ROI than the general market.
It would be interesting to see how increases in benchmark performance manifests in various potential measures of future AI ROI.
Interesting idea. I think beliefs about AGI affect both the supply and demand of AI roles. On the supply side, if you believe AGI is coming, you may want to save less, work less, and enjoy more leisure. On the demand side, you may desperately want more AI labor. At least if you think that the first to AGI will gain supersized rewards.
Another thought came to mind. Why assume that people would save less if they expected AGI? Isn’t there a world where AGI leads to a drastic widening of the gap between returns to capital and labor? If you expect this world of automation and extreme income /wealth inequality, the proper response would be to save more today dampening the increase in interest rates. And given that risk-neutral pricing dictates we overweight the bad future outcomes, maybe prices more reflect this reality than the optimistic one where we live in an AGI utopia.
Might the wage premium for AI roles be a better metric of the future ROI from AI than interest rates? In particular, these firms have less uncertainty on the ROI than the general market.
It would be interesting to see how increases in benchmark performance manifests in various potential measures of future AI ROI.
Interesting idea. I think beliefs about AGI affect both the supply and demand of AI roles. On the supply side, if you believe AGI is coming, you may want to save less, work less, and enjoy more leisure. On the demand side, you may desperately want more AI labor. At least if you think that the first to AGI will gain supersized rewards.
Another thought came to mind. Why assume that people would save less if they expected AGI? Isn’t there a world where AGI leads to a drastic widening of the gap between returns to capital and labor? If you expect this world of automation and extreme income /wealth inequality, the proper response would be to save more today dampening the increase in interest rates. And given that risk-neutral pricing dictates we overweight the bad future outcomes, maybe prices more reflect this reality than the optimistic one where we live in an AGI utopia.